The world stainless steel plate demand pattern changes slightly -- 2023 global stainless steel sheets demand may increase slightly

In 2022, the global economy experienced a sharp slowdown amid repeated outbreaks of COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the energy crisis and inflation. In advanced economies, the global slowdown has increased the risk of a world recession as inflation continues to rise and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates aggressively. Emerging markets and developing economies also face great pressure in the process of global economic recovery. Most countries have relatively weak epidemic prevention capacity and policy support. The problems such as food and energy supply disruption and energy price rise caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have hit these countries harder. That would cripple the economy. It is worth mentioning that although China's economic growth may slow down to some extent in 2022, with the gradual implementation of the package of policies and follow-up measures to stabilize the economy, China's economic development has begun to show signs of stabilization and recovery, and 2023 is expected to become an important engine to promote global economic recovery.
What will happen to global steel demand in 2023?
According to the forecast results released recently by the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, by region:
Asia
In 2022, Asia's economic growth will face major challenges due to the tightening global financial environment, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's economic slowdown. Looking ahead to 2023, Asia is well positioned for global growth, with inflation expected to fall rapidly and growth outpacing that of other regions. The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of 4.3 per cent in 2023. Comprehensive judgment, 2023 Asian steel demand is about 1.273 billion tons, a year-on-year growth of 0.5%.
Europe
After the conflict between Ukraine and Ukraine, the global supply chain becomes strained, energy and food prices continue to soar, and the European economy will face great challenges and uncertainties in 2023. Economic activity contraction caused by high inflation pressure, industrial development difficulties caused by energy shortage, rising living costs of residents and severe blow to the investment confidence of enterprises will all become obstacles to the development of European economy. Overall judgment, 2023 European steel demand is about 193 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 1.4%.
Cis countries
Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the two major economies of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the economic development of the CIS countries has suffered serious setbacks. In 2023, the development situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still highly uncertain, and the EU's "de-Russification" and G7 countries' sanctions against Russia will continue. In 2023, considering that Russia's steel demand accounts for about 75% of the total steel demand of the Commonwealth of Independent States, affected by sanctions, Russia machinery, automobiles and other important parts import blocked, the main downstream steel industry demand contraction, or will lead to the Commonwealth of Independent States steel demand further decline. Comprehensive judgment, 2023 CIS countries steel demand is about 50 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 6.1%.
North America
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that North America will grow by 1.0% in 2023. High interest rate will increase the financing cost of enterprises, not conducive to the development of manufacturing, construction and other steel industries. In addition, new U.S. infrastructure legislation will boost investment in infrastructure and the energy sector, which in turn will boost steel demand. Considering the development of North American economy and construction, manufacturing, automobile, energy and other industries in 2023, it is expected that the steel demand in North America will be about 143 million tons in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0%.
South America
In 2023, due to high global inflation, most countries in South America will face great pressure to revive their economies, control inflation and create jobs, and their economic growth will slow down. The International Monetary Fund predicts that South America's economy will grow by 1.6 percent in 2023. Among them, the construction of infrastructure, housing and renewable energy projects, ports, oil and gas projects led by Brazil steel demand is expected to rise, directly driving the recovery of steel demand in South America. Overall, the demand for steel in South America reached 42.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%.
Africa
In 2022, Africa's economy will grow faster. Under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international oil price has risen sharply, and some European countries have shifted their energy demand to Africa, effectively boosting the African economy. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Africa's economy will grow 3.7 percent in 2023 compared with the same period last year. Steel demand in Africa is expected to reach 41.3 million tons in 2023, up 5.1% year on year, with oil prices remaining high and a large number of infrastructure projects under construction.
Middle East
Economic recovery in the Middle East in 2023 will depend on international oil prices, quarantine measures, the scope of policies to support growth, and measures to mitigate the economic damage caused by the pandemic. At the same time, geopolitical and other factors will bring uncertainty to the economic development of the Middle East region. The International Monetary Fund forecasts 5 percent growth in the Middle East in 2023. Comprehensive judgment, 2023 steel demand in the Middle East is about 51 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 2%.
Oceania
Australasia's main steel consumption countries for Australia and New Zealand. In 2022, Australian economic activity gradually recovered and business confidence was boosted. New Zealand's economy has rebounded thanks to a recovery in services and tourism. The International Monetary Fund predicts that in 2023, the economic growth rate of Australia and New Zealand will be 1.9%. Comprehensive forecast, 2023 Oceania steel demand is about 7.1 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 2.9%.
From the forecast change of steel demand in major regions of the world:
In 2022, influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and economic downturn, steel consumption in Asia, Europe, CIS countries and South America all showed a downward trend. Among them, the CIS countries were the most directly affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the economic development of the countries in the region was severely hindered, and the steel consumption decreased by 8.8% year-on-year. North America, Africa, the Middle East, Oceania steel consumption showed a rising trend, year-on-year growth of 0.9%, 2.9%, 2.1%, 4.5%. In 2023, it is expected that the demand for steel in CIS countries and Europe will continue to decline, while the demand for steel in other regions will increase slightly.
From the changes of steel demand pattern in various regions:
In 2023, Asia's steel demand will still occupy the first place in the world, maintaining at about 71%. Europe and North America will continue to maintain the second and third place in the world in terms of the proportion of steel demand, among which the proportion of European steel demand will decrease by 0.2 percentage points to 10.7%, while the proportion of North America steel demand will increase by 0.3 percentage points to 7.5%. In 2023, the proportion of steel demand in CIS countries will be reduced to 2.8%, the same as the Middle East; African and South American steel demand rose to 2.3% and 2.4%.
In summary, according to the analysis of global and regional economic development and steel demand, the global steel demand is expected to reach 1.801 billion tons in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4%.